Back from the Future: Mediation and Prediction of Events Uncertainty through Event-Driven Models (EDMs)

The event-driven model (EDM) is an emerging concept in human behavioural research, and understanding how EDMs can promote theory development remains a fundamental quest of predictive science. Traditionally, researchers have heavily depended upon theory confirmation and the inclusion of mediating constructs to clarify uncertainty associated with plausible events (e.g. political, socio-economic, technological, environmental). Though this approach has pushed the field forward, it has also steered mediation research towards largely ignoring the fundamental role of prediction as a key for better understanding future events represented by EDMs. Additionally, emerging research using partial least squares structural equation modelling to execute prediction-oriented analysis continues to overlook problematic endogeneity bias and plausible type IV errors due to omitted paths and neglect of indirect effect size estimation in mediation models that embrace the transmittal or segmentation mediation approaches. We aim to introduce prediction as a fundamental option for estimating EDMs and recommend that researchers employ the segmentation mediation approach when estimating EDMs. We further emphasize a novel direct and indirect (v) effect size measure, types of prediction and cases when they are useful. Best practices and practical implications are provided to foster a more useful interpretation of findings.

The role of innovativeness and supply chain agility in the Australian service industry: a dynamic capability perspective

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the conditional indirect effect of innovativeness on performance via supply chain agility (SCA) in the service industry at higher and lower collaborative relationships.Design/methodology/approachThe hypothesised model is operationalised with survey data from 245 Australian service firms collected via LinkedIn and analysed using structural equation modelling and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA).FindingsThe analysis found that SCA significantly mediates the relationship between innovativeness and performance. Further, the conditional indirect effect of innovativeness on performance via SCA was significant when the collaborative relationship was high. Results also revealed that a configuration of both innovativeness and agility better predicts performance.Originality/valueThis study is an early attempt to investigate SCA in service industries by scrutinizing SCA from an innovative point of view. While previous studies have demonstrated the role of innovativeness in enhancing a firm's performance, this study explores this link further by investigating the conditional indirect effect of innovativeness on performance via SCA at different levels of collaborative relationships.

The indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with type 2 diabetes mellitus and without COVID-19 infection: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The effect directly from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection on health and fatality has received considerable attention, particularly among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, evidence on the indirect impact of disrupted healthcare services during the pandemic on people with T2DM is limited. This systematic review aims to assess the indirect impact of the pandemic on the metabolic management of T2DM people without a history of COVID-19 infection. METHODS: PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus were systematically searched for studies that compared diabetes-related health outcomes between pre-pandemic and during-pandemic periods in people with T2DM and without the COVID-19 infection and published from January 1, 2020, to July 13, 2022. A meta-analysis was performed to estimate the overall effect on the diabetes indicators, including hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), lipid profiles, and weight control, with different effect models according to the heterogeneity. RESULTS: Eleven observational studies were included in the final review. No significant changes in HbA1c levels [weighted mean difference (WMD), 0.06 (95% CI -0.12 to 0.24)] and body weight index (BMI) [0.15 (95% CI -0.24 to 0.53)] between the pre-pandemic and during-pandemic were found in the meta-analysis. Four studies reported lipid indicators; most reported insignificant changes in low-density lipoprotein (LDL, n = 2) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL, n = 3); two studies reported an increase in total cholesterol and triglyceride. CONCLUSIONS: This review did not find significant changes in HbA1c and BMI among people with T2DM after data pooling, but a possible worsening in lipids parameters during the COVID-19 pandemic. There were limited data on long-term outcomes and healthcare utilization, which warrants further research. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022360433.

The Indirect Effect of Sleep on the Association Between Protracted Social Stressors and Psychological Distress Among Hong Kong Young People.

PURPOSE: Hong Kong youth and young adults experienced unprecedented stress amid social unrest and the COVID-19 pandemic. Few studies have examined how these stressors were related to psychological distress among youth and young adults. This study assessed how psychological distress is associated with stress from social unrest, financial circumstances, and the COVID-19 pandemic, and whether poor sleep quality may explain these associations. METHODS: Participants of a representative phone survey included 1,501 Hong Kong youth and young adults (Mage = 26.1 (4.0); 48.2% female). We examined the associations between psychological distress and three types of stress (social unrest, financial, and COVID-19 stress), and the indirect effect of poor sleep. RESULTS: Eleven point nine percent, 4.1%, and 9.7% of respondents reported feeling very seriously distressed by social unrest, financial circumstances, and the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. All three forms of stress were associated with poor sleep. The indirect effects of poor sleep on the association between all three forms of stress and psychological distress were identified. Moderated indirect effect analysis indicated that being female intensified the effect of COVID-19-related stress on psychological distress and that younger female youth and older male youth were more vulnerable to financial stress and social unrest stress (vs. older female youth and younger male youth). DISCUSSION: Sleep may be one mechanism that accounts for the association between psychological distress and protracted stressors among Hong Kong youth and young adults. These results suggest the importance of prioritizing sleep improvement in mental health interventions during times of societal change.

Calmness instead of panicking: re-thinking the resource allocation strategies in an era of uncertainty: a case of a developing country

PurposeDrawing on the concept of superior resource, capability and processes of the resource-based theory of the firm, the purpose of the current study is to analyze the influence of firms' winner-picking strategic approach on firm performance (FP) via a direct and indirect mechanism.Design/methodology/approachUsing survey data of 104 diversified manufacturing firms, the current study analyzed the conditional indirect effect of firms' strategic approach on efficient resource allocation with the help of Statistical Analysis Software (SAS) process macros.FindingsThe study found that firms' choices of winner-picking approach can undermine the resource allocation efficiency when not perfectly blended with firms' access to the resource. Furthermore, the effect of winner-picking strategy (WPS) on resource allocation efficiency via firms' competitive advantage (CA) can be greater when both strategic choice and resources are employed adequately.Research limitations/implicationsDespite making a unique contribution, the present study has a few limitations requiring researchers' attention to be tackled in the forthcoming. This includes a little amount of data, a self-reporting technique and failure to include all the possible reasons that could lead to inefficient resource allocation.Practical implicationsThe present research has potential applications for managers of the manufacturing industry in a period of sheer uncertainty [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)]. First, the study alerts managers about the challenges of underinvestment and overinvestment while allocating resources. At the same time, this study provides an important implication for managing the importance of firms' access to capital (AC).Originality/valueThe current study has made a sizeable impression in the literature on internal resource allocation and resource-based theory of the firm by recommending a model that augments the theoretical foundation of strategic management of the firms. As there are only a handful of studies on this grave issue in the context of developing economies, thus, closely considering these insights would be helping for the firms for allocating resources efficiently in the manufacturing industry.

Radiative effects and feedbacks of anthropogenic aerosols on boundary layer meteorology and fine particulate matter during the COVID-19 lockdown over China.

The COVID-19 epidemic has exerted significant impacts on human health, social and economic activities, air quality and atmospheric chemistry, and potentially on climate change. In this study, an online coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model (RIEMS-Chem) was applied to explore the direct, indirect, and feedback effects of anthropogenic aerosols on radiation, boundary layer meteorology, and fine particulate matter during the COVID-19 lockdown period from 23 January to 8 April 2020 over China. Model performance was validated against a variety of observations for meteorological variables, PM2.5 and its chemical components, aerosol optical properties, as well as shortwave radiation flux, which demonstrated that RIEMS-Chem was able to reproduce the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the above variables reasonably well. During the study period, direct radiative effect (DRE) of anthropogenic aerosols was stronger than indirect radiative effect (IRE) in most regions north of the Yangtze River, whereas IRE dominated over DRE in the Yangtze River regions and South China. In North China, DRE induced larger changes in meteorology and PM2.5 than those induced by IRE, whereas in South China, the changes by IRE were remarkably larger than those by DRE. Emission reduction alone during the COVID-19 lockdown reduced PM2.5 concentration by approximately 32 % on average over East China. As a result, DRE at the surface was weakened by 15 %, whereas IRE changed little over East China, leading to a decrease in total radiative effect (TRE) by approximately 7 % in terms of domain average. The DRE-induced changes in meteorology and PM2.5 were weakened due to emission reduction, whereas the IRE-induced changes were almost the same between the cases with and without emission reductions. By aerosol radiative and feedback effects, the COVID-19 emission reductions resulted in 0.06 °C and 0.04 °C surface warming, 1.6 and 4.0 µg m-3 PM2.5 decrease, 0.4 and 1.3 mm precipitation increase during the lockdown period in 2020 in terms of domain average over North China and South China, respectively, whereas the lockdown caused negligible changes on average over East Asia.

The ecological consequences of a pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered human behaviour in profound ways, prompting some to question whether the associated economic and social impacts might outweigh disease impacts. This fits into a burgeoning ecological paradigm suggesting that for both predator-prey and parasite-host interactions, non-consumptive effects (avoidance) can be orders of magnitude stronger than consumptive effects (sickness and death). Just as avoidance of predators and parasites imposes substantial costs on prey and hosts, altered behaviour to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 has impacted human fitness and wellbeing. But the effects of infectious disease avoidance do not stop there; non-consumptive effects of predators and parasites often trigger cascading indirect effects in natural systems. Similarly, shifts in human behaviour due to COVID-19 have triggered myriad indirect effects on species and the environment, which can be positive, negative or neutral. We urge researchers to recognize that the environmental impacts associated with lockdowns are indirect effects of the virus. In short, the global response to COVID-19 suggests that the non-consumptive effects of a pathogen, and resulting indirect effects, can be profound.